After the latest model updates, we have decided to issue two weather warnings. The main threats appear to be of heavy rainfall and gale force winds. An intense low pressure system over the western Mediterranean will move eastwards, deepening further as it does so. Some models suggest it may develop into a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone. At its closest, the system will be over Tunisia. The atmospheric pressure at its centre will be of 983hPa, a rare occurrence in the Mediterranean. Regardless of whether it transforms into a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone or not, it is almost certain that some very bad weather will be affecting the Maltese Islands.

 

HEAVY RAIN WARNING

This warning is valid from noon on Monday 11/11 till 06:00 on Wednesday 12/11, although heavy rain showers will remain possible till later on Wednesday 13/11. As forecast since last week, the first half of this week will bring heavy to torrential rainfall to the Maltese Islands. A set of fronts associated with this vigorous low pressure system will move across the Maltese Islands on Monday 11/11 and Tuesday 12/11. A wide band of rain will be associated with these fronts. Some isolated thunderstorms should be embedded within. This band of rain should produce a lengthy period of steady rainfall, which will be heavy to torrential at times. This will affect us mainly in the afternoon and evening of Monday 11/11. The rainfall will be widespread, and therefore, all of the Maltese Islands should receive a significant amount of precipitation. Total rainfall amounts will range between 30 mm and 60 mm, with higher amounts possible across localised areas.

 

GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING

This warning is valid from 09:00 till 18:00 on Monday 11/11 and from 03:00 on Tuesday 12/11 till 09:00 on Wednesday 13/11. As forecast since last week, the first half of this week will also bring strong to very strong winds to the Maltese Islands. This wind will be the strongest since last February. The details below describe how the situation will develop over this time period.

 

Monday 11/11

09:00 to 12:00 – Southeast Force 5/6 to 6/7

12:00 to 15:00 – Southeast Force 6/7 to 7/8

15:00 to 18:00 – Southeast Force 7/8 to 5/6

 

Tuesday 12/11

03:00 to 06:00 – South Southwest Force 5/6 to 6/7

06:00 to 09:00 – South Southwest Force 6/7 to 7/8

09:00 to 12:00 – South Southwest Force 7/8 to 8/9

12:00 to 15:00 – South Southwest Force 8/9

15:00 to 18:00 – South Southwest Force 8/9

18:00 to 21:00 – South Southwest Force 8/9 to 7/8

21:00 to 00:00 – South Southwest to West Southwest Force 7/8

 

Wednesday 13/11

00:00 to 03:00 – West Southwest Force 7/8

03:00 to 06:00 – West Southwest to West Northwest Force 7/8 to 6/7

06:00 to 09:00 – West Northwest Force 6/7 to 5/6

 

The peak gusts will blow across the Maltese Islands in the late afternoon on Tuesday 12/11. They may reach Force 10 at times. The wind will remain at Force 5/6 or so for the rest of the week.

The sea will be very rough, with wave heights of up to 8.0 metres in peak gusts. The swell will be a low East. The map shows the length of coastline most exposed to this strong wind and very rough sea.

 

Wara l-aħħar aġġornament tal-mapep, iddeċidejna li noħorġu żewġ twissijiet. Il-periklu jidher li se jkun minn xita qawwija u riħ b’qawwa ta’ riefnu. Sistema ta’ pressjoni baxxa intensa fuq il-punent tal-Mediterran se tersaq lejn il-lvant, u se tissaħħaħ kif tagħmel dan. Xi mudelli qed jindikaw li din se tiżviluppa f’Medigan. Fl-eqreb punt tagħha lejn il-Gżejjer Maltin din se tkun fuq it-Tuneżija. Il-pressjoni atmosferika fiċ-ċentru tagħha se jkun ta’ 983hPa, ħaġa rari ferm ġewwa l-Mediterran. Irrispettivament jekk din issirx Medigan jew le, ninsabu kważi ċerti li se jkollna maltemp kbir ġewwa l-Gżejjer Maltin.

 

TWISSIJA TA’ XITA QAWWIJA

Din it-twissija se tkun fis-seħħ minn nofsinhar ta’ nhar it-Tnejn 11/11 sa nofsinhar ta’ nhar it-Tlieta 12/11, għalkemm ħalbiet tax-xita qawwija se jkunu possibli sa kmieni l-Erbgħa 13/11. Kif bassarna sa minn ġimgħa ilu, l-ewwel nofs ta’ din il-ġimgħa se jġib miegħu xita qawwija sa torrenzjali lejn il-Gżejjer Maltin. Sett ta’ fronti assoċjati ma’ din is-sistema ta’ pressjoni baxxa se jgħaddu minn fuq il-Gżejjer Maltin nhar it-Tnejn 11/11 u t-Tlieta 12/11. Firxa wiesgħa ta’ xita se tkun abbinata ma’ dawn. Xi maltempati bir-ragħad iżolati jistgħu jiżviluppaw ġewwa fiha. Din il-firxa wiesgħa ta’ xita se tipproduċi perjodi twil ta’ xita kontinwa, li se tkun qawwija għal torrenzjali kultant. Din se taffetwana l-aktar wara nofsinhar u filgħaxija ta’ nhar it-Tnejn 11/11. Ix-xita se tkun mifruxa, u għalhekk, il-Gżejjer Maltin kollha għandhom jaraw ammonti sostanzzjali ta’ xita. It-total ta’ xita se jvarja minn 30 mm sa 60 mm, b’ammonti ogħla possibbli lokalment.

 

TWISSIJA TA’ RIĦ B’QAWWA TA’ RIEFNU

Din it-twissija se tkun fis-seħħ minn 09:00 sa 18:00 ta’ nhar it-Tnejn 11/11 u minn 03:00 ta’ nhar it-Tlieta 12/11 sa 18:00 ta’ nhar il-Erbgħa 13/11. Kif bassarna sa minn ġimgħa ilu, l-ewwel nofs ta’ din il-ġimgħa se jġib miegħu wkoll riħ qawwi għal qawwi ħafna lejn il-Gżejjer Maltin. Dan ir-riħ se jkun l-aktar sa minn Frar li għadda. Id-dettalji ta’ hawn taħt juru kif se tiżviluppa s-sitwazzjoni matul il-ħin indikat.

 

It-Tnejn 11/11

09:00 sa 12:00 – Xlokk Forza 5/6 għal 6/7

12:00 sa 15:00 – Xlokk Forza 6/7 għal 7/8

15:00 sa 18:00 – Xlokk Forza 7/8 għal 5/6

 

It-Tlieta 12/11

03:00 sa 06:00 – Nofsinhar il-Lbiċ Forza 5/6 għal 6/7

06:00 sa 09:00 – Nofsinhar il-Lbiċ Forza 6/7 għal 7/8

09:00 sa 12:00 – Nofsinhar il-Lbiċ Forza 7/8 għal 8/9

12:00 sa 15:00 – Nofsinhar il-Lbiċ Forza 8/9

15:00 sa 18:00 – Nofsinhar il-Lbiċ Forza 8/9

18:00 sa 21:00 – Nofsinhar il-Lbiċ Forza 8/9 għal 7/8

21:00 sa 00:00 – Nofsinhar il-Lbiċ għal Punent Lbiċ Forza 7/8

 

L-Erbgħa 13/11

03:00 sa 06:00 – Punent Lbiċ għal Punent Majjistru Forza 7/8

06:00 sa 09:00 – Punent Majjistru Forza 7/8 għal 6/7

09:00 sa 12:00 – Punent Majjistru Forza 6/7

12:00 sa 15:00 – Punent Majjistru Forza 6/7

15:00 sa 18:00 – Punent Majjstru Forza 6/7 għal 5/6

 

Il-buffuri l-aktar qawwijin se jonfħu fuq il-Gżejjer Maltin tard wara nofsinhar ta’ nhar it-Tlieta 12/11. Dawn jistgħu jilħqu Forza 10 kultant. Ir-riħ se jonqos għal Forza 5/6 sa kmieni filgħaxija ta’ nhar il-Erbgħa 13/11, u jibqa hekk għal bqija ta’ din il-ġimgħa.

Il-baħar se jkun qawwi ħafna, b’mewġ għoli 8.0 metri fl-aktar buffuri qawwijin. L-imbatt se jkun baxx Lvant. Il-mappa turi l-kosta l-aktar esposta għal dan ir-riħ qawwi u l-baħar imqalleb ħafna.