Long-Term Weather Outlook

What is a typical September like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for September 2023?

September is the first month of meteorological autumn. September often brings an extension of summery conditions. Although heat spells in September rarely bring temperature at the same extreme levels as those of summer, the high relative humidity and prevailing southerly wind can make them feel far more uncomfortable. Long-term maps are in consensus that September 2023 is set to be wetter than average. A ‘Gregalata’ at the start of the month will be enough to push precipitation accumulations to above the climate norm. The possibility of further thunderstorms, particularly in the final weeks of the month, could add to this. A spell of fine weather, with characteristic summery weather, is likely around mid-month. The same long-term maps also agree that temperatures will overall be warmer than average. Temperatures are not expected to exceed 31°C. High levels of humidity, particularly after the ‘Gregalata’ of the first week or so, are likely to guarantee some clammy weather.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR OCTOBER 2023 – NOVEMBER 2023 – DECEMBER 2023 Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR OCTOBER 2023 – NOVEMBER 2023 – DECEMBER 2023 Average* (Wetter than Average at first, turning into Drier than Average)

An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How the seasons fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical August like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for August 2023?

August is the third and final month of meteorological summer. The first half of August, along with the second half of July, normally constitute the hottest period of the year. In certain years, August was the month to bring about the first intense showers to parts of the Maltese Islands. Although long-term forecasts can’t completely rule out their chances, showers in August of this year are highly unlikely, When they do occur, August showers tend to be in the afternoon and across central localities of Malta. They are formed by the upward convection of columns of warm, moist air on sunlit days. This movement leads to the condensation of water vapor and thus the formation of these clouds. It is a process triggered by the clash between cooler air from the north and the warm sea/land locally. The first half of August 2023 will be characterized by a mix of cooler than average and average temperatures. Conversely, the second half of August 2023 will bring about hotter than average temperatures. Although a heat spell with a number of consecutive days of temperatures in the mid-30s is likely, a full-blown heat wave with temperatures that reach the 40s is highly unlikely at this point. Values of relative humidity start playing a more prominent part at this stage of summer. A higher frequency of hot days leads to a higher sea surface temperature. A high sea surface temperature inhibits nighttime cooling in air temperatures. A high sea surface temperature also contributes to increased rates of evaporation which in turn lead to increased humidity. The more humid the air is, the warmer and clammier it feels.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR SEPTEMBER 2023 – OCTOBER 2023 – NOVEMBER 2023 Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR SEPTEMBER 2023 – OCTOBER 2023 – NOVEMBER 2023 Wetter than Average*

* A ‘Wetter than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards greater than normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How the seasons fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical July like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for July 2023?

July is the second month of meteorological summer. With close to negligible precipitation, July is typically the driest month of the year. The second half of July, along with the first half of August, normally constitute the hottest period of the year. After a slow start to summer in June, and a breezy start to July, summer looks set to take hold of the Maltese Islands. The Azores High has strengthened, and is now the dominant pressure system across the Mediterranean and Europe. The blocking anticyclones synonymous with summer in the Maltese Islands have strengthened too. Consequently, summer weather will prevail. Overall, we’re expecting air temperatures to be slightly hotter than average over the course of July. Despite this, no extreme heat is being anticipated at this stage. With the exception of possible isolated showers over central localities due to an ‘għarixa’ caused by an intrusion of colder air in the upper levels of the atmosphere, July 2023 is likely to be very dry. As a rule, summers in the Maltese Islands are always hot. Some are more extreme than others. This year’s one is expected to be around average. A less extreme summer may mean the odd brief spell of instability from time to time. Zones of instability in summer are typically characterized by breezy to strong winds, a temporary dip in temperatures and the occasional shower. July started off with one of these unstable episodes. Another one is possible later in the month.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR AUGUST 2023 – SEPTEMBER 2023 – OCTOBER 2023 Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR AUGUST 2023 – SEPTEMBER 2023 – OCTOBER 2023 Wetter than Average*

* An ‘Wetter than Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards greater than normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How the seasons fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical June like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for June 2023?

June is the first month of meteorological summer. The current meteorological situation doesn’t reflect this reality. The Azores High, which normally extends to cover much of the Mediterranean and Europe at this time of year, will continue behaving abnormally. It will extend farther north. Consequently, the blocking anticyclones synonymous with summer in the Maltese Islands will remain absent from over north Africa and the Mediterranean for the time being. This will consequently leave our region exposed to potential unstable outbreaks characterized by cloudier skies, breezy to strong winds and the possibility of dirty rain. As the month progresses, the atmosphere above the central Mediterranean will naturally become more stable, especially over north Africa. Warm air masses from over that region will be able to start reaching us more freely. Once that happens, the weather locally will start resembling more that of summer. As a rule, summers in the Maltese Islands are always hot. Some are more extreme than others. This year’s one is expected to be around average. There is a ‘but’ though. A less extreme summer may mean the odd brief spell of instability from time to time. Zones of instability in summer are typically characterized by breezy to strong winds, a temporary dip in temperatures and the occasional showers, Heatwaves could still occur, of course, but these may tend to be shorter and more forgiving. As things stand, intense heat spells are not likely this month. Temperatures will rise more gradually though, with maximum temperatures likely to start reaching or exceeding 30°C in the third of final week of June.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR JULY 2023 – AUGUST 2023 – SEPTEMBER 2023 Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR JULY 2023 – AUGUST 2023 – SEPTEMBER 2023 Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How seasons fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical May like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for May 2023?

May is the third and final month of meteorological spring. May is normally characterized by the continued transition to summer. The weather is typically brighter and warmer. Climatically, temperatures rise substantially over the course of the month. One would expect most days to be comfortable, although some evenings could still feel relatively fresh. Whilst spells of fine weather typically become longer and more frequent, they continue to be interrupted by the odd spell of grey skies, breezy winds and isolated light rain. The chance of rain normally dips in May. Precipitation in May is often unpredictable, however. In the majority of years, May marks the start of the summer drought. On the other hand, thunderstorms are not unheard of in May. This would occur due to the upper levels of the atmosphere still being relatively unstable. Sirocco winds are also quite common, and therefore, the threat of dusty rain and airborne fine desert sand from the Sahara extends into the first half of May. Long-term models are indicating that, with regards to precipitation, May 2023 will likely end up being around average. The first half of the month is likely to be relatively unstable. The first half of the month is likely to be around or slightly cooler than average too. The meteorological situation should stabilize more as the month enters its second half. The chance of rain should drop and temperatures rise, with the first heat spell of the season possibly taking place towards the end of May.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR JUNE 2023 – JULY 2023 – AUGUST 2023 Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR JUNE 2023 – JULY 2023 – AUGUST 2023 Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How seasons fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical March like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for March 2023?

March heralds the arrival of the first spells of spring weather. Precipitation amounts start diminishing. Temperatures start rising gradually. The weather isn’t completely stable yet, but chances of fine weather on any given day are greater. Climatically, March is well-known for its windy days. Latest long-term models suggest that March 2023 will be relatively unstable, with zones of low pressure likely to traverse the central Mediterranean fairly regularly. These would manifest themselves as frequent bouts of cooler temperatures, showers or strong winds. We’re expecting around average precipitation. Temperatures should be around average too. March is the first month of meteorological spring. Locally, springtime is often marked by a period of indecisive and rapidly-changing weather conditions, as the weather across the Mediterranean starts shifting to summer.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR APRIL 2023 – MAY 2023 – JUNE 2023 Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR APRIL 2023 – MAY 2023 – JUNE 2023 Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How seasons fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical February like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for February 2023?

The second half of January 2023 brought with it the first wintry spell of the season. Although the month fared marginally warmer and drier than average on the whole, it proved a marked improvement after a very dry and record-breaking warm December. Latest long-term models suggest that February 2023, the last month of meteorological winter, is likely to bring at least one more wintry spell. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around average. A generally warm start to the month could give way to colder temperatures as the month enters its second half. In fact, a cold spell is possible at some point after the Feast of Saint Paul’s Shipwreck on the 10th. With regards to precipitation, the outlook for a ‘normal’ February 2023 is maintained. A dry first half of the month, bathed in plentiful warm sunshine, could fade into a more unstable final half of the month. In similar fashion to January 2023, it’s likely that this month’s rain will fall in showery episodes that may be with hail at times. Some of history’s most intense Gregale gales occurred in February. We’re expecting a few windy days this month, but the trend of less strong winds than usual that has prevailed since the start of meteorological winter looks set to be maintained this month as well.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR MARCH 2023 – APRIL 2023 – MAY 2023 Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR MARCH 2023 – APRIL 2023 – MAY 2023 Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How autumn and winter fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical January like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for January 2023?

Overall, the precipitation situation in December 2022 turned out more dire than initially forecast. It became among the warmest and driest on record. The first half of January 2022 is likely to maintain the significantly warmer-than-average temperatures trend. The second half of the month could be more seasonal in terms of temperatures.  The final week of January and the first week of February are typically the chilliest part of winter locally and a cold snap can never be ruled out, not even in the midst of a very mild winter. A prominent cold spell is not looking imminent at this point, however. Where precipitation is concerned, the outlook for January 2023 has turned into a drier than average one with the last model run. As things stand, we’re not expecting it to be as dry as December though, with at least a few showery episodes looking likely. January is known for its northwesterly gales. There should be a few windy days, but these too are likely to be less than what one would expect in a typical January.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR FEBERUARY 2023 – MARCH 2023 – APRIL 2023 Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR FEBRUARY 2023 – MARCH 2023 – APRIL 2023 Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How autumn and winter fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical December like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for December 2022?

The long-term prediction for November 2022 was right in suggesting a drier than average first half of the month with a marked improvement in the final two weeks. The degree of improvement was admittedly, underestimated, however. Frequent episodes of heavy rain towards the end of November proved enough to tilt the penultimate month of the year towards a wetter than average ending. Where December 2022 is concerned, long-term maps appear to lack consensus. Consensus is stronger where temperatures are concerned. Overall, it is likely to be warmer than average. A very mild start to the month should fade into more seasonal levels around Christmastime. Intense cold spells are not looking likely. Turning our attention to precipitation, long-term maps remain very undecided. It appears that we should expect a generally unstable meteorological situation with a number of showery days. How heavy and persistent the rain is on showery days will determine how wetter or drier than average December 2022 ends up being. As things stand we’re expected precipitation in December 2022 to be around average or marginally below average.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR JANUARY 2023 – FEBERUARY 2023 – MARCH 2023 Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR JANUARY 2023 – FEBRUARY 2023 – MARCH 2023 Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How autumn and winter fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.

What is a typical November like according to climate statistics?

What do long-term weather maps indicate for November 2022?

Long-term maps appear to be in consensus about their outlook for November 2022. Overall, it is likely to be around average or slightly warmer than average. The warm start to the month will fade away to more seasonal temperatures by the first weekend of the month. From then on, a gradual decline in temperatures is looking increasingly likely. No intense spells of cold or heat are being anticipated at this stage. It could be a drier than average month overall, but if we give the details a closer look, we notice that an interesting pattern could emerge. The first half of the month is likely to be drier than average, with rain coming in the form of isolated showers that will accompany brief episodes of instability. It’s still too early to confirm any details, but the rainfall situation may improve (at least slightly) in the second half of the month. The same long-term maps are suggesting more instable airmasses over Italy at that times. These will bring episodes of more widespread rainfall to that region. Only time will tell whether or not that will affect the Maltese Islands directly or not. At this stage a drier than average outlook remains more likely overall, however.

What do long-term weather maps indicate for the longer-term?

FURTHER OUTLOOK (TEMPERATURE) FOR DECEMBER 2022 – JANUARY 2023 – FEBRUARY 2023 Warmer than Average

FURTHER OUTLOOK (PRECIPITATION) FOR DECEMBER 2022 -JANUARY 2023 – FEBRUARY 2023 Average*

* An ‘Average’ outlook means that maps are pointing towards normal storm system activity around the central Mediterranean. How autumn and winter fare in terms of actual precipitation amounts measured locally depends on whether the rain-producing systems that form around the Maltese Islands affect land or not.

Disclaimer: Specific details on the weather may only be given for a couple of days in advance. This long-term forecast is not meant to determine specific weather parameters at a point on the Maltese Islands. Instead, it looks at large scale weather patterns across Europe, and attempts to determine how these may influence the weather locally. Our levels of confidence in the forecast for the month ahead are fair. These are reasonably lower when it comes to the ‘Further Outlook’ section. Weather forecasts are an interpretation of possible weather events based on trends, maps and climate data at the time of the forecast, and as a result, weather predictions may always change over time. Maltese Islands Weather can never be held responsible for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or even lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use or misuse of this data.