It goes without saying that summers in the Maltese Islands are always characterised by days of uninterrupted bright sunshine, hot temperatures and light winds. This is brought about by the intensification of the Azores High, which very often extends to cover all of the central Mediterranean. Like always, however, all seasons vary slightly from the climatic mean. Some summers are harsh, while others turn out to be a bit more forgiving.

We’re in the early days of summer, and many are wondering what the weather situation will be like on the whole. Long-term maps suggest that summer 2020 will be close to average, or marginally hotter. Anticyclones over northern Europe are expected to be stronger and than normal. Meanwhile, atmospheric pressure across the Mediterranean will be slightly lower than average. This will prevent air masses of Arctic origin from reaching Europe. Conversely, this will allow air masses of Saharan origin to rise from north Africa into Europe more freely. This will lead to a hotter than average summer for much of Europe. The Maltese Islands will not be at the centre of this. While warmer-than-normal conditions may occur at times, temperatures will not be record-breaking. In fact, temperatures are likely to be consistent, hovering in the lower 30s. Locally, the only particular concern for a long-duration heat wave appears to exist for August. Overall, temperatures will likely be 0.25°C to 0.75°C above the climatic mean. Stronger anticyclones over northern Europe will mean that storms which normally affect the British Isles and Scandinavia will be pushed further south. Hence, the Maltese Islands may experience brief periods of strong winds at times. These are the highlights for this summer:

July 2020: Normal temperatures; Normal rainfall

August 2020: Normal temperatures; Normal rainfall

September 2020: Normal temperatures; Drier than average

Even if these long-term models turn out to be completely accurate, it does not mean that these predicted weather conditions will persist for three months straight. It only gives us an indication of how the weather pattern will be like most of the time.

 

Ma hemmx għalfejn ngħidu li s-sjuf ta’ Malta kull sena jkunu ddominati minn jiem sħaħ ta’ xemx tiżreġ, temperaturi sħan u riħ ħafif. Dan huwa r-riżultat ta’ l-‘Azores High’, li ta’ spiss testendi biex tgħatti ċ-ċentru tal-Mediterran. Bħal dejjem, pero’, l-istaġun kollha jvarjaw xi ftit mill-medja klimatika. Xi sjuf ikunu aktar ħorox minn oħrajn, u xi kultant ftit anqas qalila wkoll.

Ninsabu fl-ewwel jiem tas-sajf, u ħafna qed jaħsbu kif se tkun is-sitwazzjoni tat-temp fix-xhur li ġejjin. Il-mudelli tat-temp fit-tul qed jindikaw li sajf 2020 se jkun wieħed normali, jew xi ftit aktar sħun. L-antiċikluni lejn it-tramuntana ta’ l-Ewropa se jkunu aktar persistenti minn sena tipika. Sadattant, il-pressjoni ta’ l-arja madwar il-Mediterran se tkun daqsxejn anqas. Din se twaqqaf arja friska minn fuq l-Artiku minn li testendi lejn l-Ewropa b’mod frekwenti. Fl-istess waqt, arja sħuna minn fuq id-deżert se tkun tista tersaq il-fuq aktar. Din se twassal għal sajf aktar sħun minn normal madwar l-Ewropa. Il-Gżejjer Maltin mhux se jkunu fil-qalba ta’ dan. Filwaqt li xi jiem jistgħu jkunu ferm aktar sħan mill-medja, it-temperaturi mhux mistenni li jiksru rekords. Filfatt, it-temperaturi għandhom ikunu konsistenti fil-livelli baxxi ta’ fuq 30°C ħafna miż-żmien. Lokalment, l-uniku konċern għal mewġa ta’ sħana fit-tul se tkun lejn Awwissu. B’mod ġenerali, it-temperaturi probabilment jkunu xi 0.25°C sa 0.75°C ogħla mill-medja klimatika. Antiċikluni aktar b’saħħithom lejn in-naħar ta’ fuq ta’ l-Ewropa ifisser li sistemi ta’ maltemp li normalment jaħkmu l-Gżejjer Brittaniċi u l-Iskandinavja jistgħu jkunu mbuttati aktar l-isfel. Kaġun ta’ dan, il-Gżejjer Maltin se jesperjenzaw perjodi qosra ta’ riħ qawwi. Din hija ħarsa lejn kif jidher li se jkun is-sajf:

Lulju 2020: Temperaturi normali; Xita normali

Awwissu 2020: Temperaturi normali; Xita normali

Settembru 2020: Ftit aktar sħun minn normal; Aktar niexef minn normal

Anke jekk dawn il-mudelli fit-tul jirriżultaw li jkunu preċiżi għal aħħar, ma jfissirx li t-temp se jkun għal tlett xhur sħaħ. Jagħtuna biss ħjiel ta’ kif se jkun it-temp b’mod ġenerali matul is-sajf.